Tampa Housing Inventory Surges: What It Means For You

When assessing home price momentum, it’s important to monitor key housing supply indicators such as: 1) # of active listings and 2) # months of supply. If housing supply increases without an equivalent increase in demand, then home prices generally decrease. Which is exactly what we’re seeing in the market right now:

WHAT’S THE LATEST DATA TELLING US?

• Active listings in Tampa are up 20% year-over-year, from 17,550 in May 2024 to 21,062 in May 2025.
  

• Months of inventory jumped to 5, up from just 3 months of inventory a year ago, which indicates a larger supply of homes relative to demand.

• This increase in supply has put downward pressure on home prices, with the median sales price dropping from $390,000 in May 2024 to $379,300 in May 2025, a 2.7% decrease year over year.

Since early 2024, the # of active listings (red line) have surged above pre-pandemic levels, while median sales prices (blue line) have peaked and are gradually coming down. If this trend continues, we could see home prices continue to fall another 5-10% in the next 12 months or so.

WHAT’S IN IT FOR ME?

Is the market “crashing”? No. Don’t buy into the hype. If you stay relatively up to date with the market and have a solid plan, you can still win in any market. While the market is certainly “slower” than years past, there are still 4000+ homes selling every month in Tampa. With that said, here are my recommendations given the current market conditions:

• Buyers: Buyer affordability is extremely low right now. But if it’s within your means, there are certainly great opportunities to be had. With more supply and less demand, you have more options and less competition, meaning more negotiating power to create great deals.

• Sellers: Holding may be a great option if you have a long time-horizon. If you need/want to sell, you’ll need to price strategically and take into account hyper-local supply and demand data to maximize the sales price of your home.

• Homeowners: Increased supply doesn’t always mean lost value. Knowing your current equity helps you plan smartly and take into account your options.

WHAT’S MY HOME WORTH?

If you’re curious how this impacts the value of your home, simply reply to this email and I’ll send you a copy of your updated equity report.

Best,