The Number Everyone Is Watching Right Now

It’s not home prices grabbing attention this month, it’s mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed rate just hit its lowest mark of 2025, setting the stage for new activity in the housing market.

MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS SURGE

With average 30-year fixed mortgage rates now hovering at 6.3-6.4% (down from 6.6-6.7% just last month), mortgage activity is picking up:

• The Purchase Mortgage Index is at 174.0, up 19.1% from 146.1 a year ago.

• The Refinance Mortgage Index is at 1,596.7, up 69.6% from 941.4 a year ago.

WILL THIS BRING BACK MORE BUYER DEMAND?

Typically, lower mortgage rates = more buyer demand = more mortgage activity. As seen in the graph above, even with the recent dip in rates, mortgage activity is still muted compared to past markets.

And the reason is simple: 71.3% of mortgage holders hold an interest rate lower than 5%. And for them, today’s 6.3-6.4% rates aren’t an upgrade, they’re a step backward. This has created a “lock-in effect” and has become one of the biggest forces slowing the housing market.

So while rate cuts and headlines may spark short-term excitement, the bigger picture hasn’t changed: affordability challenges and locked-in homeowners continue to keep overall demand capped.

That said, nearly 4,000 homes are still selling every month in the Tampa-St. Pete-Clearwater area. And until rates drop further or affordability improves, the market will continue to favor those who act strategically instead of waiting for the crowd.

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